Anticipate potential risks

Subtask Description:
Anticipate potential risks.

Action points of the implementation:

List the main external hazards that pose a risk to the ‘real’ system, and estimate the work required to evaluate the level of hazard, the probability of its occurrence, and its consequence for each management option.

Area:
Mar Piccolo, Taranto, Italy.

Policy Issue:
Sustainable use of the Mar Piccolo resources in order to include mussel culture.

Human Activities:
Urban and industrial activity, mussel culture, urbanization, shipping, maritime transport.

General Information:
The area is a field of many conflicting activities but also has always been one of the most important mussels farming areas in the country. In particular, fishing, distribution, catering, tourism, transport, import and export are activities directly connected to aquaculture, bringing an economic improvement and therefore a greater social welfare. However externalities, such as social problems or illegal aquaculture plants that over-exploit the existing natural resources, are causing damage to the ecosystem. During the last years, data from the local market evidenced quantity and quality reduction of the harvested mussels. The major stakeholder concerns are connected to the sustainable development and welfare of the activity.

Example of Implementation:

Table 1 : List of potential risks for Mar Piccolo in Taranto, Italy.

Component	Potential risks	Work required to estimate level of hazard	Work required to estimate probability of occurrence
Ecological	Pathogens causing the collapse of the resources contaminants causing the prohibition of mussel consumption	Literature analyses to identify the list of possible diseases	Analysis of previous mussel infections
		Comparing available information on sediment contamination and literature information on mussel uptake	Analysis of available models (not in-house)
	Decrease of primary production	Literature analysis to analyze data on primary production changes and mussel productivity	Analysis of available models (not in-house)
	Invasive species causing the alteration of trophic chain	Literature analysis to identify similar cases in similar ecosystems	Analysis of available models (not in-house)
	Decline in the quantity of the mussel production	Literature analysis	Analysis of stock dynamics
Socio – economic	Sale of not safe mussels	Literature on illness study	Analysis of related illness
Socio – economic	Plants of aquaculture illegal	Analysis of regular and irregular plant in local area	Local unofficial stakeholder estimate

Contact:
Carmela Caroppo, Carmela.Caroppo@iamc.cnr.it