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Design Step
| This page explains, briefly, how to carry out the second step, 'System Design' in a SAF application. | Most recent update: 17 March 2011 |
The Design Step is made up of the task set out in the menu below. There is a table of subtasks and action points for each task.
Click on the '+' below to see more information on that work task and to see links to further material.
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The System Definition task
+ Define the Coastal Zone Virtual System
This sub-task begins the process that leads from knowledge of the real coastal zone system to end in the construction and use of a mathematical model. The Virtual System may also include relevant socio-economic features that can be conceptualized but will not simulated. It is important to ensure that all the main real-world social, economic and ecological functionality relevant to the 'Issue' is represented within the Virtual System, although maybe in a simplified manner.
Describe the cause-&-effect chain
Describe the chain from Human Activity via ecosystem dysfunction to Impact that is involved in the problem.
Describe the Virtual (eco)System around the cause-&-effect chain
Draw a map of the real system showing the main features to be included in the Virtual System, including boundaries. Identify vertical structure that is important to the coastal ecosystem's functioning. List the main ecosystem components, and their main links, to be included in the Virtual System because they are relevant to the 'Issue'.
Specify the physical boundary conditions
List or map the main transboundary exchanges that should be included in the Virtual System.
Identify the social and economic components to be included in the Virtual System
Building on work during the 'Issue Identification' step, identify and characterize the stakeholder groups relevant to the Issue. Identify the main property rights and Goverance structure relating to the Issue, and draw an Institutional Map. List the present and potential economic demands likely to be made in the real system in relation to the Policy Issue, and which should be included in the Virtual System.
Instructions on how to carry out this sub task
Output
The result of this sub-task will be a set of lists and maps, which may be considered as a first draft for later refinement. | Example 1 | Example 2 | Example 3 .
+ Identify the external hazards
This sub-task concerns characteristics of potential risks (e.g. geological, ecological, social, economic) that should be evaluated and taken into account in scenarios.
Identify the external hazards
List the main external hazards that pose a risk to the real system in relation to the 'Issue'. Evaluate the level of hazard, the probability of its occurrence, and its consequence for each management option, or begin the work needed to do this if there are complicated matters to consider.
Instructions on how to carry out this sub task
Output
The result of this sub-task will be a preliminary list of risks. | Example.
+ Synthesize the state of the impacted system
This sub-task concerns writing up what has been done during the task, and also involves standing back to think about the state of the impacted ecosystem relative to the functions relevant to the 'Issue', and about knowledge gaps.
Begin to draft the 'Designed System' report
Include the outputs from sub-tasks 1 and 2 in an illustrated narrative that defines the Virtual System in relation to the 'Issue' and describes the effect of relevant Human Activities on the current state of the ecosystem, the goods and services that it provides, and the stakeholders involved. Discuss this narrative with other scientists and the Reference Group (of stakeholders and public officials) in order to identify knowledge gaps, take account of traditional ecological knowledge and the Reference Group's perception of the socio-economic system.
Instructions on how to carry out this sub task
Output
The result of this sub-task will be a first draft of a 'Designed System' report. (There is no complete example for this sub-task.)
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The Conceptual Modelling task
+ Construct conceptual models
This continues the work of formalizing the Virtual System and requires the sketches (the diagrams and lists) made during 'System Definition' to be assembled into one or more conceptualizations following consistent rules. Several models may be made, either showing different disciplinary or heirarchical parts of the social-ecological system or showing different conceptualizations of how the relevant part of the real coastal zone system is thought to work.
Choose a method for representing the Virtual System according to consistent rules
Select a set of graphical symbols and connectors and a means for assembling these - either by drawing or by using software. Users may need training in the use of this method.
Prepare conceptual models
These diagrams, made using the selected method, should centre on the cause-&-effect chain from Human Activity to Impact on ecosystem goods and services. Several models may be made, either showing different disciplinary or heirarchical parts of the social-ecological system or displaying different opinions of how the relevant part of the real coastal zone system is thought to work. Models should show the main social, ecological and economic compartments and variables, primary cause-&-effect relationships; key forcings; external inputs (mass, energy, and information), internal inputs.
Involve the Reference Group
Depending on how much discussion took place during the 'System Definition' step, consider further discussion with stakeholders and environment managers in order to represent their knowledge within the conceptual models.
Instructions on how to carry out this sub task
Output
The result of this sub-task will be a set of conceptual models, as drawings and perhaps also in software, that have been agreed with the Reference Group. |
Example 1 |
Example 2 |
Example 3 |
Example 4.
+ Specify model outputs
The process of building conceptual models will be rewarding in itself, in that it is likely to bring about a greater understanding of differing conceptualizations of the Virtual System by scientists of different disciplines as well as by members of the Reference Group. But it is also part of the development of simulation models, and for this development it is useful to begin to think about the data the model will generate in later steps of the SAF application.
Identify the model variables that might be used for model testing
Identify the Virtual System variables that might be used to demonstrate reliable simulation of the coastal zone system during `System Appraisal'. Typically, these will be time series of state variables, or rates, that can be compared with observations.
Specify the system outputs for both qualitative and quantitative analyses
Ensure that the conceptual model diagram(s) contain(s) marker(s) for the information that is expected to be output from the simulation model(s), corresponding to or leading to the indicators used to evaluate the effects of various scenarios in the 'System Appraisal' and 'System Output' steps.
Instructions on how to carry out this sub task
Output
The result of this sub-task will be included in the conceptual model diagrams. | Example.
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The task of thinking about Data and Methods
+ Identify software, methods and formats
Decide on simulation model strategy and tools
Decide on strategy for simulation modelling, including whether to adapt available existing models, or develop new sub-models, as components for the Virtual System simulation model. Identify software tools for building the simulation model, deciding between the use of familiar software and the acquisition of new and perhaps more systems-oriented software.
Identify auxilary models to be used
Specify auxiliary models that may be needed to link with the main simulation model (for example, to provide boundary conditions): they should be available, and feasible to use with available resources.
Identify other tools needed
Identify other software or analytical tools needed (e.g. Geographical Information Systems, tools for time-series or statistical analyses).
Identify data formats
Identify data format (and any Intellectual Property issues) for existing data sets, and decide how these data sets and the model outputs will be stored.
Instructions on how to carry out this sub task
Output
The result of this sub-task will be documented decisions about strategy, tools, formats and existing models. |
Example 1 |
Example 2.
+ Analyse the economic dimensions of the Coastal Zone system and identify suitable economic assessment methodologies
Check and improve the economic components
If necessary, i.e. if economic dimensions of your models are not clear from previous tasks, go through the `step-by-step' approach in Mongruel et al. (2011) to help you integrate these.
Identify economic assessment methodologies
Identify appropriate assessment methodologies to explore the future states of the Coastal Zone system, and agree these with the Reference Group.
Instructions on how to carry out this sub task
Output
The result of this sub-task will be documented decisions about approaches and methods for economic assessment.
+ Begin to acquire data
Data aquisition is often a slow process; it is best to begin it early, even when data will not be required until subsequent steps in the SAF application.
Set in motion actions to aquire data
Identify the relevant Human Activities and set in motion actions to acquire relevant `pressure' or `forcing' data. Identify existing economic data relating to these HAs and set in motion actions to acquire these data. Identify existing demographic and social attitude data relating to these HAs and set in motion actions to get them. If Coastal Zone Governance structure relative to HAs is not clear from previous tasks, set in motion actions to identify relevant laws and governance institutions. List ecological, social and economic data (for initial conditions, forcing or boundary conditions, and testing) that will be needed for simulations and tests, identify sources, and set in motion actions to acquire these data. Where possible, identify model parameter values that will be needed, identify sources, and set in motion actions to acquire these data.
Decide what to do in the absence of existing data
The options are to interpolate, simulate with auxilary models, use expert judgement, or (bearing in mind expense and time requirements) commission observations or experiments.
Instructions on how to carry out this sub task
Output
The result of this sub-task will be a set of actions initiated to obtain or substitute data. | Example 1 | Example 2.
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The Problem Scaling task
+ Adjust the complexity of the Virtual System
The Virtual system must capture the important features of the behaviour of the real coastal zone social-ecological system, relevant to the 'Issue': these likely include emergent properties and strongly non-linear behaviour due to feedback loops; but at the same time the components of the Virtual System need to be simplifed to make simulating them feasable. Problem Scaling may mean scaling down:consider: removing state variables from the list; re-adjusting the Virtual System's extent to simplify boundary condition description; simplifying the representation of spatial heterogeneity; removing or simplifying subsystems; focussing on a single space and time scale, so eliminating some process descriptions. Or, it may mean scaling up: adding variables, feedback loops, and process descriptions in order to include relevant system features.
Adjust the complexity of the science in the Virtual System
Reflect on and adjust the complexity of the Virtual System to get the right balance of simplification and behaviour, so that so far as is known, scientific understanding of the key process are represented accurately but without too many parameters, so that in each part of the model there is a balance between contribution to explanation of variability and the amount of work that will be needed to set up and run the simulation model.
Ensure feasability of implementation for the model
This is a management action point. Reflect on and adjust the complexity of the Virtual System to ensure that it will be possible to implement and run the simulation model with available resources.
Instructions on how to carry out this sub task
Output
The result of this sub-task will be a revised conceptual model and an updated management plan its implementation. The example describes how the sub-task was carried out. | Example.
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Begin to specify formats for results
A SAF application is a process carried out jointly with stakeholders and environment managers or policy makers, and, in addition to on-going discussions with the Reference Group, there will be a need to report to the wider community of stakeholders etc. in 'System Output'. It is best to start preparing for this from the start, by documenting each step as it takes place. In addition, it may be deemed desirable to produce a scientific output, in the form of a paper in a peer-reviewed journal. This will strengthen the perceived legitimacy of the scientific results, will disseminate what has been learnt out into the wider scientific community, and may be vital for the career prospects of the scientists involved.
Scientific results
Begin to think about the need to publish scientific results, and if necessary identify suitable journals, and their formats, in the natural economic and social sciences.
Results for 'System Output'
Begin to specify the format for presentations and visualizations (for policy-makers, stakeholders, and public) recommended for use in 'System Output'. This might include thinking about a media strategy, and includes discussing requirements with the Reference Group.
Instructions on how to carry out this sub task
Output
The result of this sub-task will be notes related to the outputs, perhaps with the outline of a paper and part of a set of presentation slides. The example begins to document the identification of scientific outputs. | Example.
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'Designed System Report'
The 'Designed System Report' differs from the proposed scientific or popular output: it is an evolving technical document describing the work that has been done.
'Designed System Report'
Compile, or update, a 'Designed System Report' which will be a working document, to be updated in subsequent steps, and from which information can be drawn in 'System Output' and for scientific publication
Instructions on how to carry out this sub task
The result of this sub-task will be the 'Designed System Report', to be augmented in subsequent steps.
